And Five Reasons It Might Not

Although the Dreamcast already has quite a few strikes against it, it will have a few advantages going into the millennial system wars. By the time the Playstation2 hits at around $299, the Dreamcast will no doubt be down to at least $149. And considering that the second-generation DC software will probably look just as good as the first-generation (CD-based) Playstation2 titles, the price difference will be a major factor. Time is also on Sega’s side, as the lapse between the DC and PS2 is just long enough to convince kids to pick up a Dreamcast now and just short enough for parents to say “but I just bought you a new system” when the PS2 debuts. And having sold ridiculous numbers of Dreamcasts in 1999, Sega will have a strong user base when Sony has to start from scratch. ^[24]

²⁴ With Sony’s ridiculously huge lead over the Gamecube and Xbox now, it’s funny to think of Sony “starting from scratch,” isn’t it?

Furthermore, although Sega has lost or never had the support of many crucial developers, it is important to note that Capcom has pledged their full support to the Dreamcast, probably because it is the only home system that can handle arcade ports as well as their console-only Resident Evil series. And the most important advantage that the Dreamcast has is that it really isn’t that bad. ^[25] Sure, American developers have had a hard time making quality software for the system, but that’s nothing new. The point is, titles like Soul Calibur and Marvel vs. Capcom make the system worth owning. Sega’s flagship title, Sonic Adventure, might be a little too shallow and derivative, but it’s still head and shoulders above the many Mario 64 knockoffs out there. It seems as if not even SOA’s blundering is enough to totally screw this one up, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dreamcast consoles going for fifty dollars in three years. ^[26]

²⁵ Ultimately, this was always true. As much as Sega screwed it up, it was a fairly powerful little system with very, very good games. Which is why its demise made people sad, not happy like with the Jaguar or whatever.
²⁶ I was wrong here. It turned out to be two years.

To Be Continued

So what will happen to the Dreamcast? Who can say? Sega’s own plans for the system, and for the company’s future in general, are questionable to say the least. They’re looking into releasing a DVD add-on for the system ^[27], which might bring it up to speed with the Playstation2 and Nintendo Dolphin ^[28], but also invokes bad memories of the 32X and Sega CD for those old enough to remember. And Sega has announced that the Dreamcast may in fact be its final hardware system, which means that they could bail out at any time and lose nothing. ^[29] The only thing that Dreamcast owners have to reassure themselves is Sega’s word, which, as anyone who has ever owned a Sega system will tell you, is worthless.

[ Next: Failure is always an option ]

²⁷ Which, thank God, they didn’t. But you know they had a prototype completed.
²⁸ Of course, the Xbox was nothing more than an unbelievable rumor at the time. Funny, since some would say that its very existence was the major reason that the Dreamcast bit the dust when it did.
²⁹ This was the single most dead-on prognostication of the whole piece – that Sega could just kill the whole operation whenever they wanted to and not have to worry about how screwed over system owners felt, because they weren’t going to sell hardware anymore. And that is exactly what they did.